In a declassified conclusion of the National Intelligence Service entitled "Iran: Nuclear intentions and potential" U.S. intelligence agencies reported in December 2007 the following: "We think with greater confidence that in the autumn of 2003 Tehran has stopped its nuclear arms program.

This highly controversial conclusion encouraged Iranian leaders to reject the possibility of a U.S. attack, allowing Tehran to take even more belligerent position (www.iht.com), and it might have been expected, it made any further negotiations fruitless.  

It will be the best if Iranians could be persuaded to close their nuclear program because the alternatives - a U.S. or Israeli attack or allowing apocalyptic - thinking leaders in Tehran to make the Bomb - are far worse.

The renewal of the dark foreboding in Iran offers a unique way to achieve this goal. Washington, having to only convince Tehran that Iranians will never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons, can persuade them to stop their program and to avoid the necessity of a military campaign. This can still be achieved but requires a major change in the course of the U.S. policy.

First, the Bush administration should prepare for a possible attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure and second, it must alert the public of the danger. Israeli leaders must do the same, as some of them have already made this. Third, the administration should resist the inevitable tsunami of criticism. Fourth, it should encourage governments, which are greatest opponents of such an attack - including the European Union, Russia and China - to exercise pressure on Tehran to suspend its nuclear program.

If this approach succeeds, the crisis will be determined. If not, U.S. presidential elections in November will adopt threatening dimensions. "There is only one thing worse than the U.S. of military actions", said John McCain, "This is Iran's possession of nuclear weapon." Unlike him, Barack Obama called for "sober and resolute diplomacy", "more stringent [economic] sanctions and alternative sources of energy" - in essence, a call for ever the same old stuff.

If George W. Bush's mandate ends with McCain's victory, Bush is likely to withdraw, allowing McCain to decide the next steps. But Obama's intention to continue with the current unsuccessful policy implies that if he wins, Bush may put the beginning of military actions against Iran, despite the tradition Presidents, leaving their posts, not to start major initiatives in the last weeks of their mandate.